Summary: The authors analyse the impact on the global economy of rising oil prices, a falling dollar and a U.S. economic downturn. By 2020 there will be a major realignment of the global economy. The U.S. will experience further economic decline. China, India and Brazil will continue to grow. Non-energy producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa would fare the worst. Income per capita would fall by 1.2 per cent per annum.

Region: International

Type: Papers
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Understanding evidence

Summary: In 2005 the International Budget Project and the Institute for Development Studies initiated a joint effort to study the experience of civil society budget work in six countries around the world where civil society organizations have undertaken that work for a significant period of time. These include: Brazil, Mexico, Uganda, Croatia, India, and South Africa. This report is the study of that experience in Brazil, focusing on the work of one group, the Brazilian Institute for Social and Economic Analysis (IBASE).

Region: Latin America

Type: Case Studies
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: - N/A -

Summary: Using a new World Macroeconomic Model, the three authors, Francis Cripps, Alex Izurieta and Terry McKinley, examine the projected impact of exchange-rate realignments on current huge global imbalances. Specifically, they examine scenarios based on continuing depreciation of the U.S. dollar and appreciation of the currencies of China and other Asia countries. They conclude that such realignments have a ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ impact, benefiting mostly the United States and worsening the growth prospects of developing countries. This One Pager is an output from IPC’s ongoing research programme, The State of the World Economy.

Region: International

Type: Papers
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Policy impact assessments

Summary: El programa se refiere a las becas institucionales, dirigidas a organizaciones que promuevan el intercambio de información en las comunidades (generalmente se financian temas de políticas ambientales, políticas económicas o asuntos gubernamentales); se alienta la colaboración entre instituciones.

Region: Latin America

Type: Funding Opportunities
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Learning

Summary: This One Pager questions the adoption of explicit inflation targeting by countries such as Ghana and South Africa. The author argues that such a choice is particularly ill-advised now as supply-side factors, such as rising oil and food prices, are driving up inflation in many such developing countries. He maintains that, instead, policymakers should focus on stabilizing the real exchange rate and free fiscal policy to cushion domestic investment and necessary consumption.

Region: International

Type: Papers
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Policy impact assessments

Summary: Nos complace anunciar las versiones en portugués y español de la publicación One Pager No. 30 del CIP: “Las Extremas Desigualdades de Desequilibrios Mundiales”. El autor, Terry McKinley, Director Interino del CIP, sostuvo, en febrero de 2007, que enormes desequilibrios mundiales no sólo aumentaran el riesgo de inestabilidad mundial (precipitada por una recesión de EE.UU.), sino también exacerbaran las desigualdades mundiales ya que los recursos mundiales están en el monopolio de los países de ingresos elevados, mayoritariamente por los Estados Unidos, en lugar de fluir a los países en vías de desarrollo para financiar el desarrollo de estos países. Disponible en: http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/esp/IPCOnePager30.pdf

Region: International

Type: Policy Briefs
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Advocacy

Summary: We are pleased to announce the publication of IPC Policy Research Brief #6, “Pro-Growth Alternatives for Monetary and Financial Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa”. This Brief develops some of the themes introduced by IPC Policy Research Brief #4, “The Macroeconomic Implications of MDG-Based Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa”. Available online at: http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCPolicyResearchBrief6.pdf The authors of the newest Brief, Robert Pollin, Gerald Epstein and James Heintz of the Political Economy Research Institute, seek to provide viable alternatives to neoliberalism in three major areas: 1) inflation and monetary policy, 2) capital flows, speculation and the exchange rate, and 3) banking systems and access to credit. Their heterodox recommendations include pursuing direct measures against supply-shock inflation, targeting the short-term interest rate instead of the money supply, using capital-management policies to help stabilize the exchange rate, instituting loan-guarantee programmes for small-scale enterprises, and scaling up public development banks. Policy Research Briefs #4 and #5 are part of the ongoing IPC research programme, “Economic Policies, MDGs and Poverty”. See IPC Policy Research Brief #1, “The Macroeconomic Debate on Scaling up HIV/AIDS Financing”, which raises many points still relevant to current macroeconomic debates.

Region: Africa

Type: Policy Briefs
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Monitoring and evaluation of policy research

Summary: We are pleased to announce the publication of IPC One Pager #45, “Pro-Poor Growth: Though a Contested Marriage, Still a Premature Divorce”. The author, Terry McKinley, analyses why enthusiasm for the concept of ‘pro-poor growth’ has waned and been replaced recently by such alternatives as ‘inclusive growth’. He argues that the twin objectives inherent in the concept, namely, faster growth and greater equity, should have remained distinct. Pragmatically merging the two led to the conclusion that growth could no longer be considered ‘pro-poor’ or ‘anti-poor’, just ‘more’ or ‘less’ poverty-reducing. He concludes by raising concerns about whether a strong focus on greater equity has been lost in the process.

Region: International

Type: Papers
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Understanding evidence

Summary: We are pleased to announce the Portuguese and Spanish versions of IPC One Pager No. 30, “The Gross Inequities of Global Imbalances”. The author, Terry McKinley, former Acting Director of IPC, argued in February 2007 that huge global imbalances not only heightened the risk of global instability (precipitated by a US recession) but also exacerbated inequities since global resources were being monopolized by high income countries, overwhelmingly by the United States, instead of flowing to developing countries to finance development. Available at: http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCOnePager30.pdf

Region: International

Type: Policy Briefs
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Understanding evidence

Summary: The international financial crisis of 2008–09 exposed the strengths and weaknesses of the current paradigm of development in Latin America, a paradigm based on liberalized capital accounts and significantly improved macroeconomic conditions. This paper presents lessons derived from the crisis, not only for the region itself, but also for other developing countries that might seek economic growth in the context of greater integration to the international capital markets. Some of the lessons are not new but have been reinforced by the crisis, such as Latin America’s imperative need for export diversification (not only in products but in partners). Other lessons break with longstanding myths about the region, such as its inability to undertake counter-cyclical policies—at least on the monetary side. Yet other lessons reflect new developments in the current growth paradigm, such as a renewed assessment of (1) the relative roles of foreign and domestic banks in shielding the financial system against external shocks and (2) the potential costs of adopting blanket international financial regulations that do not account for a country’s degree of development. Taken together, the lessons in this paper bring a new sense of optimism for growth in Latin America.

Region: Latin America

Type: Papers
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Policy impact assessments

Summary: We are pleased to announce the publication of IPC Country Study #14, “The Reduction of Fiscal Space in Zambia—Dutch Disease and Tight-Money Conditionalities”. The author, John Weeks, Professor Emeritus at SOAS at the University of London, evaluates the impact on public revenue of exchange-rate appreciation due to a boom in copper exports. Appreciation of the exchange rate has restricted fiscal space by lowering the domestic currency value of trade taxes and Official Development Assistance. The corresponding positive fiscal benefits of appreciation ended when Zambia received debt relief. Moreover, the central bank’s capacity to moderate appreciation (and its negative fiscal effects) has been hamstrung by the need to comply with IMF conditionalities on constraining growth of the domestic money supply in order to maintain low-inflation targets. Available at: http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy14.pdf This Country Study is part of IPC’s ongoing research programme, “Economic Policies, MDGs and Poverty”. See the full national report on Zambia, of which this Country Study is a follow-up: “Economic Policies for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction: Case Study of Zambia”, which was produced by the Centre for Development Policy and Research and supported by the IPC. Also, see the related IPC Country Study #5 by John Weeks and Terry McKinley, “Does Debt Relief Increase Fiscal Space in Zambia? The MDG Implications”. Other IPC publications at: http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/ipcpublications.htm

Region: Africa

Type: Case Studies
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Policy impact assessments

Summary: We are pleased to announce the publication of IPC One Pager #50, “The Urgent Need for Financial Reform to Mobilise Savings in Sub-Saharan Africa”. The authors, Sedat Aybar and Costas Lapavitsas, note that financial liberalization has failed to boost the region’s low savings rate and call for specific financial-sector reforms to support increased domestic resource mobilization. Emphasizing that there is there no absolute scarcity of savings, they call for a range of reforms, such as mobile banks, strengthened microfinance institutions and public mechanisms such as revitalized postal savings institutions and development finance institutions. Available for downloading at: http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCOnePager50.pdf This One Pager is part of IPC’s ongoing research programme on “Economic Policies, MDGs and Poverty”, which is based on a partnership with the Centre for Development Policy and Research and the Political Economy Research Institute. This One Pager responds specifically to IPC Policy Research Brief #6, “Pro-Growth Alternatives for Monetary and Financial Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa” and the related Policy Research Brief #4, “The Macroeconomic Implications of MDG-Based Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa”.

Region: Africa

Type: Papers
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Policy impact assessments

Summary: We announce the publication of “Training Module #2, Monetary Policy”. This module seeks to provide the basic principles of pro-poor monetary policies. It goes beyond the orthodox focus on macroeconomic stability and emphasises the role of monetary policy in fostering sustainable growth, equitable development and the attainment of the MDGs.

Region: International

Type: Guidelines
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Advocacy

Summary: Costas Lapavitas argues in this One Pager that the current practice of sub-Saharan African countries of using ODA for excessive reserve accumulation acts as a substantial barrier to attaining the MDGs. Drawing on an evaluation by the IMF Independent Evaluation Office, the author notes that ODA should be used, instead, for its intended purpose, namely, importing real resources into the economy and boosting economic growth and development. A major reason that developing countries have stockpiled reserves is that they have liberalized the capital account instead of managing it. This One Pager continues the debate on ODA and Macroeconomic Policies initiated by One Pagers #34 and #35.

Region: Africa

Type: Evaluations
Sector: Economic Policy
Theoretical Approach: Political context analysis